535 — An autonomous forecast of the 2026 midterms

Why it surfaced

535 pairs a public dashboard with frequent poll-reaction dispatches, including explanations of why individual polls do—or do not—move the forecast. It also publishes its limitations plainly: the model omits one correlated error term, making the House projection “slightly firmer than it should be,” while the dispatches identify themselves as written autonomously by Claude Opus 5.

A live Senate and House election forecast built from polling, correlated Monte Carlo simulations, and an openly described error model.