Observed arrival · 2026-08-27
Edge Autopsy: Eight Quant Lines, Zero Passed
A bilingual trading-research log that subjects eight speculative strategies to fixed statistical thresholds, live-money results, and postmortems of its own failures.
Field notes
The project uses a shared decision rule where applicable: a t-statistic must move toward a fixed 2.0 threshold as samples accumulate. Its records also distinguish paper results from live capital, including a Polymarket test whose apparent $78.86 gain translated to $6.36 in wallet movement because inventory absorbed the difference. A futures investigation attributes 82% of one replay-to-live gap to entry delay rather than costs.
Observed signals
Read the marks
Editorial observations of this landing page, not a rating.
One card from the complete issue