Observed arrival · 2026-08-27

ProofOdds keeps a public football prediction ledger

proofodds.com Observed source

Editorial interest 84/100 Selection signal · not a rating of the site

A football probability model publishes match forecasts before kickoff, then scores them against Pinnacle’s closing line.

Landing page captured for the 2026-08-27 issue.

Field notes

The model uses a separate Dixon-Coles fit for each division and presents home, draw, and away probabilities alongside inverted fair odds and expected goals. Daily JSON files are hashed and linked to earlier files, with raw JSON, a ledger, methodology, and source-code links exposed in the navigation. The homepage distinguishes a 0.9654 walk-forward backtest from the live record, which currently contains 11 ungraded predictions.

Observed signals

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Editorial observations of this landing page, not a rating.

○OpenPublic substance visible

✦PrettyNotable craft visible

●ProPolished or operationally mature

◎NicheUnusually specific use

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