Observed arrival · 2026-09-04
BidVariance, a Monte Carlo bid calculator for fixed-price work
A browser-based tool that models cost and schedule uncertainty so teams can set contingencies, assess loss risk, and choose a defensible project price.
Field notes
BidVariance models fixed-price project estimates as probability distributions rather than single-point totals. Its displayed workflow combines cost drivers, schedule risks, correlations, and discrete events, then reports percentile outcomes and bid thresholds; one example gives P80 as the commercial reference and a $178,533 minimum quote. The site also describes local browser execution, seeded reproducible runs, and Web Worker processing intended to keep the interface responsive.
Observed signals
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Editorial observations of this landing page, not a rating.
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