Observed arrival · 2026-09-05
Honest ETA: When the Bus’s Four Minutes Means Eight
An evidence-backed U-M transit tool that compares live bus predictions with GPS-inferred arrivals and adjusts estimates using route-specific history.
Field notes
The dashboard records published predictions alongside live vehicle positions, infers arrivals with GPS hysteresis, and measures errors by route, stop, weekday, and hour. Its comparison uses a chronological 80/20 split and explicitly states that there is no holdout leakage. The page also identifies a typed service behind the dashboard and says it powers five Model Context Protocol tools, connecting a local bus tracker to a broader machine-readable interface.
Observed signals
Read the marks
Editorial observations of this landing page, not a rating.
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