offdiagonal: Forecasts, replayed against reality

Field notes

The system separates forecast capture, outcome capture, replay, and preservation, with each stage tied to the information available at a decision cutoff. Its current panel contains 5,203 captured rows, but only 130 qualify under the published replay rules because assumed clocks and inadmissible references are excluded. A separate frozen reference set contains 49,068 pairs from 90 models and is explicitly kept separate from the project’s own scored evidence.