Observed arrival · 2026-09-18
The p(doom) Market Is a Fictional Futures Exchange for AI Catastrophe
Credibility concern recorded. The source reference remains available for verification and correction.
A visual concept for trading the perceived probability of AI-caused extinction or permanent human disempowerment by 2100.
- For
- AI-risk followers and forecasting-market observers
- Worth noticing
- The proposed index uses a weighted median of attributed estimates, but its sources, weights, and safeguards remain undefined.
Field notes
The page separates a displayed perpetual price from a proposed oracle index, allowing the imagined contract to move ahead of broader consensus. Its methodology section names a weighted median, exponential smoothing, and bounded index moves, while also acknowledging that source selection and safeguards remain undefined. A featured example attributes an illustrative 550-basis-point reaction to a public resignation post. The site repeatedly labels its figures fictional and says no external oracle or trading mechanism is connected.
Observed signals
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Editorial observations of this landing page, not a rating.
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