Observed arrival · 2026-09-21
AI Prediction Index: The Forecasts Meet Their Deadlines
A public scoreboard tracks predictions about AI, records their deadlines, and scores them against subsequent outcomes.
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- For
- Readers tracking AI forecasts and accountability
- Worth noticing
- Among 109 resolved calls, the page lists 34 correct, 30 partial, and 45 incorrect predictions.
Field notes
Each record combines a quoted forecast with the speaker’s role, date, deadline, source, topic, and an outcome note. The homepage separates unresolved calls from those whose deadlines have passed, then rolls them into group leaderboards and annual tables. Visible examples include Kurzweil’s 2029 Turing-test forecast, Hinton’s radiology timeline, and Musk’s 2020 robotaxi claim, giving the scoreboard concrete material rather than only aggregate percentages.
Observed signals
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○OpenPublic substance visible
✦PrettyNotable craft visible
●ProPolished or operationally mature
◎NicheUnusually specific use
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