Observed arrival · 2026-09-23
Roman Prigodskii’s forecasting research
A Moscow student’s portfolio of UFC and boxing forecasting models, research, and shipped software.
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✦Pretty
●Pro
◎Niche
◉Human
⚑Risk
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- For
- Readers of sports forecasting, model evaluation, and student research
- Worth noticing
- On 582 priced bouts, the closing line beats the model on accuracy, log-loss, and Brier score; the page lays out the comparison.
Field notes
The Vertex MMA section describes a system using 118 features, blending LightGBM, CatBoost, and logistic regression; separate models handle debuts and fight outcomes, while a simulator runs each bout 10,000 times. The portfolio reports 8,906 modeled bouts and links to the product and GitHub source. It describes the live site as available in English and Russian, with virtual currency only. Other listed projects include a boxing model, an execution pipeline, and a free MIT-licensed clipboard app.
Observed signals
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Editorial observations of this landing page, not a rating.
○OpenPublic substance visible
✦PrettyNotable craft visible
●ProPolished or operationally mature
◎NicheUnusually specific use
◉HumanPersonal, local, civic, or handmade
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