Observed arrival · 2026-09-25
How Everyone Dies
An explainer lays out four hypothetical mechanisms by which advanced AI could lead to human extinction, alongside sections on how to reason about the risk and how other scenarios frame it.
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- Readers examining catastrophic AI risk
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- The four mechanisms are described as independent, unranked, and non-exclusive, with onset estimates ranging from decades to a single decisive step.
Field notes
The page labels its mechanisms M-01 through M-04 and gives them different onset windows, from years-to-decades to a single decisive step. It says these are illustrative rather than forecasts, and links to separate sections on its explanatory framework and summaries of other scenarios, including AI 2027, AI 2040: Plan A, and Yudkowsky's nanotech lower bound.
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