Observed arrival · 2026-09-27
A forecast model for chess tournament entries
ChessEntries estimates final tournament registrations from historical CCA entry patterns, with forecasts, confidence ranges, and tools for comparing events.
○Open
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$Paid
†Ads
✦Pretty
●Pro
◎Niche
◉Human
⚑Risk
ƒJS
- For
- Chess tournament directors and CCA staff planning around registrations
- Worth noticing
- The displayed interval targets 80% coverage; the page says two-week backtests have landed inside it about 75% of the time.
Field notes
The model explanation says it uses a harmonic mean for historical final-to-current entry ratios, which downweights unusually high ratios, and blends ratios between historical lead-time points. A second model uses per-family Huber regression, with a size-matched global fallback for unfamiliar tournament families. The page also describes manual overrides and email-generation controls; the extracted view labels some sections as loading.
Observed signals
Read the marks
Editorial observations of this landing page, not a rating.
○OpenPublic substance visible
✦PrettyNotable craft visible
●ProPolished or operationally mature
◎NicheUnusually specific use
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