Observed arrival · 2026-10-09
The ICE Effect
A research guide explains estimates of how immigration enforcement affects employment, wages, and the broader labor market.
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- Readers tracking immigration policy and labor markets
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- It pairs per-arrest estimates with mechanism explanations, policy citations, media coverage, state-level projections, and an FAQ.
Field notes
The guide separates direct effects of arrests from chilling effects among immigrants who remain, then describes how the authors connect immigrant and U.S.-born workers through complementary jobs. It reports employment estimates per 1,000 arrests of −2.5% for likely undocumented immigrant men and −0.54% for U.S.-born men in the same area; the page also says men who kept their jobs saw no wage gain.
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