Observed arrival · 2026-10-14
Placebo puts clinical-trial odds on-chain
Credibility concern recorded. The source reference remains available for verification and correction.
An on-chain prediction market lists probabilities for clinical-trial outcomes, starting with Alzheimer’s studies.
- For
- Clinical-trial watchers and prediction-market participants
- Worth noticing
- The page reports nine open markets, a 0.0004 ETH contract balance, and zero staked in listed markets.
Field notes
The listings identify studies by NCT number and show endpoints such as the Clinical Dementia Rating Scale–Sum of Boxes and the Cohen-Mansfield Agitation Inventory. A replay section pairs past trial readouts with probabilities assigned beforehand, and the page reports a Brier score of 0.190 across 81 readouts. The live market display includes both Alzheimer’s trials and entries for an FDA new-entity category and a “Translation Challenge.”
Observed signals
Read the marks
Editorial observations of this landing page, not a rating.
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