Observed arrival · 2026-10-24
Decoder’s public-prediction audit
An independent audit of public geopolitical predictions by @aravind on X, alongside dated forecasts from the Decoder project.
○Open
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$Paid
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✦Pretty
●Pro
◎Niche
◉Human
⚑Risk
ƒJS
- For
- Readers tracking public geopolitical predictions
- Worth noticing
- Historical audit subsets may overlap, and the page distinguishes strict counts from half-credit scoring.
Field notes
The overview organizes the material into claims, timing, sample bias, audience reach and forecast analysis, with links to an archive, patterns, methodology and forecast pages. It says historical subsets may overlap and distinguishes strict counts from half-credit scoring. The page also describes a scoreboard for the project’s dated calls as their deadlines resolve.
Observed signals
Read the marks
Editorial observations of this landing page, not a rating.
○OpenPublic substance visible
✦PrettyNotable craft visible
●ProPolished or operationally mature
◎NicheUnusually specific use
◉HumanPersonal, local, civic, or handmade
ƒJavaScriptBrowser-side code central
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