Observed arrival · 2026-10-30
Midterm Forecast 2026 puts Senate and House odds on the map
An interactive forecast estimates control of the Senate, House and governorships using polling inputs and 20,000 simulated elections.
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- For
- Readers tracking the 2026 U.S. midterms
- Worth noticing
- The model allows polling errors to move in the same direction across many races, rather than treating each contest as independent.
Field notes
The dashboard separates chamber-level outcomes from race-level views and includes a history of daily model runs since July 1. Its House section says it displays 153 districts while omitting 282 safe seats; the model description also says polling misses can move together across races. A comparison section references Kalshi prices dated Oct. 27.
Observed signals
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