Observed arrival · 2026-11-03
Threshold’s 2026 New Zealand election forecast
An independent forecast of the 7 November 2026 general election, presenting chances for party votes, seats, electorates, list MPs and majority arithmetic.
- For
- New Zealand election watchers and voters
- Worth noticing
- The page says its estimates draw on published polls and distinguishes them from official results published by the Electoral Commission.
Field notes
Threshold identifies itself as Max Lin’s independent personal project, separate from employers, parties, candidates, pollsters and campaigns. Its navigation points to electorate and party views, Parliament and majority arithmetic, plus analysis, track record, theories, scenarios, methods and neutrality notes; the captured homepage says “Loading the forecast…,” so the actual estimates were not visible in this extract. It says estimates use published polls and distinguishes them from official Electoral Commission results.
Observed signals
Read the marks
Editorial observations of this landing page, not a rating.
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