Observed arrival · 2026-11-04
Did the Model Call It?
An independent dashboard comparing Claude’s 2026 Senate and House forecasts with other forecasters, then tracking results and calibration.
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✦Pretty
●Pro
◎Niche
◉Human
⚑Risk
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- For
- Readers tracking election forecasts and calibration
- Worth noticing
- The Senate and House seat-count displays describe distributions across 40,000 simulations.
Field notes
The Senate and House panels describe seat-count distributions, while the ledger is organized by chamber and race status: competitive, called, misses, or everything. A calibration section groups called races by Claude’s stated win probability; the page says an honest forecast should track the diagonal. The visible receipt currently leaves the lock time and SHA-256 values as dashes, and the surprise list says “None yet.”
Observed signals
Read the marks
Editorial observations of this landing page, not a rating.
○OpenPublic substance visible
✦PrettyNotable craft visible
●ProPolished or operationally mature
◎NicheUnusually specific use
◉HumanPersonal, local, civic, or handmade
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