Borel Research’s public forecast ledger

Field notes

The page lays out four forecast areas—capacity auctions, power contracts, regulatory timing, and time-to-power—and says forecasts will be hashed before an event, then released for independent checking. It proposes monthly scorecards with sample sizes and named misses, using scoring rules intended to reward calibrated probabilities. The public ledger currently lists three pending entries and reports zero resolved forecasts; the displayed examples cite PJM auctions, a hyperscaler nuclear contract, and a PJM backstop outcome.