Observed arrival · 2026-11-10
Reckoning puts its forecasts on the record
A research brief publishes dated, probability-based forecasts on space, defense, energy, and manufacturing, then grades them publicly.
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✦Pretty
●Pro
◎Niche
◉Human
⚑Risk
ƒJS
- For
- Investors and strategy teams tracking aerospace and defense
- Worth noticing
- Each call names a probability, resolution date, and falsifier; the page reports three graded calls and an average Brier score of 0.31.
Field notes
Forecasts are stated as checkable conditions rather than broad predictions: the featured call specifies two separate outcomes that must both be public by its deadline. The page reports three graded calls so far and explains that a Brier score of 0 is perfect, while 0.25 is a coin flip. Several recent calls also include disclosures of the author's holdings, including SpaceX and NVIDIA.
Observed signals
Read the marks
Editorial observations of this landing page, not a rating.
○OpenPublic substance visible
✦PrettyNotable craft visible
●ProPolished or operationally mature
◎NicheUnusually specific use
One card from the complete issue