Observed arrival · 2026-11-11
Su Ufku’s Istanbul reservoir forecasts
Su Ufku tracks Istanbul’s reservoir levels and forecasts how they may change over the next 14 to 30 days, with longer-term drought scenarios.
- For
- Istanbul residents following water supply and drought risk
- Worth noticing
- Its backtest uses only information available on each historical forecast date; the site reports a 3.7-point average error for 30-day forecasts from 2011–2023.
Field notes
The page distinguishes a weather forecast from a water forecast: ECMWF data is used for the first 14 days, while later weather conditions are drawn from historical years. Its explanation also accounts for soil absorption, water use, transfers from Melen and Yeşilçay, temperature, and evaporation. The site reports that recent short-term calculations have often placed reservoir levels above the measurements, a limitation it says may also affect the current monthly forecast.
Observed signals
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