Commonwealth Index Maps Virginia’s 2026 Congressional Battlegrounds

Why it surfaced

Commonwealth Index pairs a weighted polling average with a documented methodology: polls are adjusted for sample size, recency, and house effects, with a cap on how much any single poll can move the estimate. Its battleground view then shows how each race’s Democratic win probability changes as the national environment shifts, alongside an About page and corrections policy.

An independent Virginia polling and election-analysis project tracking the generic congressional ballot, battleground House seats, and a Senate race.