Causeway and the Case Against Naive Rollout Math

Field notes

Causeway frames rollout measurement as a counterfactual problem: compare locations receiving a change with an estimate of what those locations would have produced without it. Its example separates a reported +24.7% sales lift from an initiative result of −2.7%, while the site says two-thirds of unchanged months could still look positive under a straight read. The team describes work across 20–300-site operators and cites synthetic difference-in-differences as part of its analytical background.