Observed arrival · 2026-09-12
The Match Theory, a Statistical Dating Reality Check
A French-language estimator for how many nearby people might fit a set of dating preferences—and how many might accept yours.
Field notes
The model builds a local dating pool from municipalities whose centres fall within a selected radius, then splits the population into five-year age and sex cohorts. It applies preference probabilities and survey-based refusal rates across attributes such as education, income, smoking, children, politics, and religion. The author rounds small results to multiples of five and flags several reconstructed cross-tabulations as approximate, including body size and religious profiles.
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