Observed arrival · 2026-11-14
A probability calculator for planetary protection
This calculator combines probabilities across chains of events, with options for modeling forward or backward contamination scenarios.
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- Planetary-protection risk modelers
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- Distribution examples include containment reliability, sterilisation survival, and surface turnover times on icy worlds.
Field notes
The guide distinguishes several ways to represent uncertainty: entering values directly, selecting a preset distribution, or adjusting sliders to fit data or expectations. It also describes combining separate routes, including life inside a returned sample tube and possible return on external hardware. The page credits a biostatistics professor, an organic geochemist, and a software engineer; it cites related work as submitted to Astrobiology.
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